California's Top-two Primary: A Successful Reform II
Abstract: This paper is the second of three concurrent papers, California's Top-two Primary: A Successful Reform I, II, and III, but it can be read independently.
Summary: Contrary to claims, it is found that no harm has been wrought by the top-two on the minor parties in California, whether judged by their voter registration; or the risk a minor party runs in not remaining ballot-qualifed; or any correlation between a minor party's voter registration and whether it has few or many candidates on the general election ballot; or any fall in the amount of money disbursed by the minor parties state committees. II. In a race in an incumbent-free Assembly district safe for one or other major party, that ends in a general election between two candidates of that party, the top-two has raised the minimum block of votes sufficient to win the seat, from 20,000 to the range of 60,000 to 80,000, and moved the required block from the primary electorate to the general; and in districts safe for their party the vulnerability of incumbents to being knocked out office in a primary election has decreased, but the number of incumbents actually losing to same-party challenges has increased, these increased losses now occurring in the general election.
